Note pls be devil advocate and puncture hole in below thesis. I will be grateful.
1. With today 40 basis sbi rate cut on fd done we are firmly on low interest rate trajectory.
2. Sbi loan rate before today cut was 7.15 . Now agàin 40 basis points will lower it further.
3. Ğodrej habitat you book with 10 lakh in 3 months. Then nothing till May 24 when modiji comes back.
4. Interest rate for loan should be 5 percent at that time. Best case 4 percent loan Worst case 6 percènt loan. Taking 5 for calculation.
5. Nearest society bestech has rent of 2 bhk 28000 today. It is 14 yrs old. With less amenities. Less central location. Will put screen shot below of rent.
6. Based on this i take godrej habitat with better location finish and amenities rent 4years later as 35 k.
7. Now if someone pays remaining 90 lakh by full loan at that time with loan at 5 percent then his interest outgo is 4.5 lakh a year. If both husband n wife take income tax benefit then it is 1.2 lakh. So net outgo is 3.3 lakh. Rent at 35 k saved by staying or earned is 4.2 lakh a year. So you are 1.2 lakh cash positive a year or 10 k a mónth.
8. This is cash flow positive property from day one for person who books today.
9. With 90 percent 2 bhk inventory gone resale should happen fròm next diwàli.
10. If above works out obviously price appreciation happens as people will do calculation.
11. My this articlë may be used by godrej team also.
12. If things work out perfectly then i see godrej habitat at min 8500 which is rate of gurgaon one today. A 15 yr old society. So that makes 1444 sq ft at approx 123 lakh.
13. But my best case is to be able to keep the property and cash paying for it on auto. Robert kiyosaki Rich dad poor dad model.
14. In case things are not so great and property appreciates 2 percent a year then i get out 3 yrs from now with my 6 lakh on 10 lakh ie 18 percent a year return.
15. Entire risk is of builder. I see n want to play to make it with loan. Emi n loan rates 7 yrs 9 yrs 11 yrs will be even lower and rents would increase 3 to 4 percent also then as per my excel loan gets repaid in 9 to 10 yrs.
16. DA in july 24 would be min 50 or above. So hra would be 27 percent. So a col of 20 to 22 yrs service will get 42 to 45 K hra. Historically last 40 years after 8 yrs of implementation of pay commission people end up paying few thousands from their pocket. N they normally r able to afford 2.5 bhk not 3. And all this calculation for dwarka mundane housing societies not luxury ones.
17. So 35 k rent is conservative estimate.
18. Yes talking all this in today’s uncertain times may look very futuristic. But all investments and decision have to be taken with some premise. Money and opportunities lie when everybody doesn't have clarity.
19. To add to it completion of dwarka expressway by next year, new metro route and station 200 metres away. Rentals this side are much more than other side despite not being so chikna. I am comparing with golf course but other sectors 60 to 79. Sohna road ones and extension. As density high and old world charm with its own ecosystem of maids drivers cooks dhobi tailor mochi sabzi mandi and aspiration of people staying here for 70 years as family who do not want to leave the area. As all buisness here.
20. The corporate crowd may not come but Garg ji Gupta ji bansal ji all local trading affluent community Ones with joiņt families who will buy it on possession only as now transaction with builder all white. Their desire is and will be to be on sam floor in different 3 n 2 bhks. Even extended families will stay together. And main thing i am banking is only 384 apartments. So its not that ki 1000 flat hain. This makes it a niche product.
In this i feel Heads I make property with no cash from my side. Tails i do not lose much.